My background is a mix of truckload and expedite, both from an asset and brokerage perspective. Many years in a sales capacity, with experience in operations and brokerage.
Perhaps the most well-known and obvious takeaway from my time in the industry is its cyclical nature. We run in highs and lows based on capacity and the overall economy. Election cycles and softened consumer confidence (supply vs. demand) were typically what caused freight downturns in the past. As of late, Covid and driver shortages threw a massive wrench in trend expectations. From 2020 to almost the present day, we saw suppliers shelling out hefty supply chain costs due to material shortages along with an already massively drained driver pool.
This is just my opinion, but those days are finally behind us. I have not experienced a flip of this magnitude in my 12+ years in the industry. Ocean rates have plummeted, suppliers have become backlogged with products, and carriers are feeling the opposite end of a 2 ½ year bender of strong rates.
"Transportation is saturated with competition, and suppliers are in a position to dictate rates and expectations"
Examples such as Yellow Roadway (YRC) should cause concern to all. This is our largest example; however, on the brokerage side, we have also seen large-scale layoffs from the likes of Coyote and CH Robinson. Mom and Pop carriers find it harder to make truck payments with rates dwindling, and with tag renewals typically in January, many eyes will take notice of just how much of the driver force will exit at the beginning of 2024.
While this reads as doom and gloom, there is plenty to be positive and optimistic about moving forward. Many experts forecast an uptick in pricing and volume in mid-2024. Transportation is saturated with competition, and suppliers are in a position to dictate rates and expectations.
From sales to drivers to dispatch, do exceptional work. Take care of your customers; it is very likely they have been treated transactionally these past two years. But that is the great thing about transportation: it is resilient and has an incredible way of separating the wheat from the chaff. Even transitioning from a time of plenty to a time of few, there will always be a market for those setting themselves apart.
By no means am I to be considered a gold standard in any of the categories of my experience. These are simply my thoughts as we navigate the ebbs and flows of one of the most essential, volatile, and high-paced industries, which is a leading indicator for the overall health of our economy.
